Model Accuracy in- and out-of-sample. Plots may take a few seconds to load.
Mean posterior estimates: Fitted coefficients having 95% intervals that exclude zero.
Variable Importance: Sensitivity coefficients integrate the effects of predictors across all responses (species) in the model.
Commonalities in responses across species help to define communities on the basis of response rather than distribution or abundance. The clustering of responses below can help us rethink community relationships across these diverse species groups. The figure to the right combines the effects of individual species responses with covariance in the environment. Species similarities in their responses to environmental variables in X. Warm colors are similar species pairs, and vice versa. Species are rows. At left species are also columns. Clusters of warm colors indicate similar responses to X. At right is the fitted coefficient matrix B, with columns as predictors. In this example there are less strong patterns in B that match similar groups.
Sensitivity of predictors compared to mean posterior estimates: In this figure to the right the warmer colors along the diagonal of F indicate covariates with higher sensitivities. Sensitivity coefficients integrate the effects of predictors across all responses (species) in the model.

Communities of small mammals, beetles, and vascular plants

Communities are identified using Gaussian Mixture Modeling with the mclust package in R. Clustering is done on relative abundance-weighted habitat suitability. The top map shows current community distributions and the bottom map shows projected future shifts. Communities with similar relative abundance-weighted habitat suitability across the two maps share the same color. Select the buttons on the left to learn more about the species within each community

Compositional Changes in Communities

To see how the species composition is changing select a community below.

Spatial Shifts in Communities

Current
Future

Welcome to Predicting Biodiversity with Generalized Joint Attribute Models (PBGJAM)

PBGJAM is an interactive web-based tool that provides forecasts of species and community responses to climate change for birds, plants, small mammals, and insects.

Select the options to the left to explore model accuracy and other outputs for your taxa of interest.

To return to viewing species distribution/community maps click here